NASCAST
NASCAST
Twelve independent signals read the market after every close and resolve into a single reading, tested across nine years of history before it was shown to anyone. This is the live one, the same figure the app shows.
Every trading day, twelve signals examine the NASDAQ-100 from different angles: long and short-term trend, momentum across several timeframes, volatility and its term structure, credit spreads, and flows into government bonds.
Each votes bullish, bearish or neutral. The votes are weighted by how reliable that signal has proven, so a structural trend measure counts for more than a five-day wobble. The weighted balance becomes a score from 0 to 100 and a regime, from Bull to Panic.
Nothing about the reading is discretionary. There is no analyst adjusting it, no narrative fitted after the fact. The same calculation runs every day and publishes whatever it produces, including when that contradicts the mood of the market.
The reasoning is not hidden either. In the app, every signal states what it measured, what it found, and which way it voted, so the number can be argued with instead of taken on trust.
The reading above is free. The twelve readings behind it, with the numbers each one is working from, are part of the full version.
See the full versiontrading days tested, one at a time, before this was shown to anyone.
Nine years covering the 2018 volatility shock, the 2020 crash, the 2022 bear market and the 2025 tariff selloff. On each historical day the engine saw only the data available that morning and nothing after it, so the readings below are what it would actually have told you at the time, not what looks obvious in hindsight.
Days it signalled Bull through the whole 2022 bear market, February to October. Both of that year's sharp bear-market rallies were read as recoveries, not as new uptrends.
The health score on 8 April 2025, the low of the tariff selloff. The scale bottoms at zero, and in nine years a reading under ten has only ever occurred at a genuine crisis point.
Share of those nine years spent in the defensive regimes, Bear, Fear or Panic. Rarity is the point: a warning that fires constantly is not a warning.
Historical readings are produced by applying the current method to past data. They describe how the method would have read those markets; they are a record, not a forecast, and past behaviour does not indicate future results.
Nascast did not begin as an app. Its engine was built for a private swing-trading system, where the cost of misreading the market was measured in real money rather than engagement metrics. That is an unusual origin for a consumer tool, and it shows in the design.
The signals are drawn from published research rather than invented: time-series momentum, volatility term structure, credit spreads as a leading indicator of equity stress. What took the time was not choosing them but working out which ones earn their weight, and removing the ones that did not.
Every signal has to earn its place. The test is whether it changes the answer, and whether it changes it for the better; the ones that only added noise were taken out, however reasonable they looked on paper.
The result is deliberately narrow. Nascast reads one index, once a day, and says one thing about it. It does not pick stocks, forecast prices, or tell anyone what to do.
The daily reading, the twelve signals with their reasoning, recent history, and a home-screen widget that keeps the current regime in front of you without opening anything.
Coming soon to AndroidThe reading above is free and always will be.